One Nation and a high-profile independent have put Coalition candidates above Labor on their how-to-vote cards in two key Hunter seats.
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One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has directed preferences to Labor ahead of moderate Liberal MPs in some metropolitan seats.
But Ms Hanson has not attacked the Liberals or Nationals in the seats of Paterson and Hunter, where preferences hold the key to the Coalition upsetting Labor.
One Nation candidate Neil Turner's how-to-vote card in Paterson has Liberal Brooke Vitnell at number five, Labor MP Meryl Swanson at six and the Greens last. The Liberals have put One Nation ahead of Labor on their preference cards in Paterson.
In Hunter, independent Stuart Bonds, a mine worker who gained 21.6 per cent of the primary vote in 2019 as a One Nation candidate and almost helped the Nationals defeat sitting MP Joel Fitzgibbon, has directed his preferences to One Nation ahead of the Nationals then Labor.
His order of preferences improves Nationals candidate James Thomson's odds of beating Labor's Dan Repacholi, but it is unclear how many electors will see and follow how-to-vote cards.
One Nation's Dale McNamara has UAP's Geoff Passfield at two, Mr Bonds at three, Mr Thomson at five and Mr Repacholi at seven.
Mr Repacholi has Mr Bonds, who opposes net zero targets, at four, above the Greens at five, the Nationals at eight and One Nation last.
Labor holds Hunter by just three percentage points after a 10-point swing in 2019.
The Nationals likely will capture the preferences of the minor parties before a two-party showdown with Labor, though Mr Bonds and One Nation have not given up hope of edging ahead of Mr Thomson on preferences.
Labor hopes the minor parties drop out before the Nationals in the preference count because fewer Nationals voters would steer preferences Mr Repacholi's way.
A Nationals spokesman said Mr Repacholi was the favourite and it would be an "amazing feat" to flip the seat.
Mr Repacholi will have to at least match Labor's 37 per cent primary vote from 2019 and rely on preferences from the Greens and minor parties to get over the line.
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Michael Parris
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
