Rapid population growth across the Lower Hunter threatens to exert long-term pressure on roads, schools and house prices.
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An analysis of figures from the 2021 Census shows Maitland remains one of the fastest-growing council areas in the state with a 16.7 per cent population change in five years.
Cessnock, which grew by 14.5 per cent from 2016 to 2021, was another local government area experiencing a sharp rise in population.
Along the Hunter Expressway, which opened in 2014, the population of North Rothbury climbed from 898 to 2502 thanks to the Huntlee estate, and Cliftleigh also almost tripled from 888 to 2309 residents.
The growth figures compare with population rises of 8.4 per cent in Greater Sydney, 16.9 per cent in south-west Sydney, 5.8 per cent on the Central Coast and 6.9 per cent in the Illawarra.
The Lower Hunter growth rate was 10.2 per cent over five years, more than two per cent a year.
The Newcastle Herald reported on Wednesday that the region's population growth was far outstripping the 1.17 per cent annual rise predicted in key state government planning documents.
Growth in the Hunter's greenfield housing subdivisions comes as no surprise, but Newcastle also experienced a sharp rise in population (8.7 per cent), partly due to increasing density in the inner-city and the suburbs.
The CBD, including Newcastle West and Wickham, grew by 3300 from 12,600 to 15,900 people between the two censuses as high-rise unit blocks proliferated.
New subdivisions in Maryland and Fletcher added 2900 residents, and nearby Cameron Park, added another 2000 citizens to Lake Macquarie council area.
But estabished suburbs also grew as townhouses, duplexes and small apartment buildings replaced free-standing dwellings.
The Adamstown-Kotara statistical area added 1000 people, as did the Merewether-Junction area.
In Port Stephens, the Fern Bay population jumped 1300 and Medowie added 1400 people.
In Lake Macquarie, the Morisset and Cooranbong population leapt 3000.
Committee for the Hunter chief executive officer Alice Thompson said the NSW government had been "undercooking" its predictions for the Hunter's growth.
"It's worth pointing out it's relatively high when you look across other growth rates across the nation and Sydney. We are growing faster than others," she said.
"We've always had a bit of a problem with state government projections and thinking that they're undercooking the level of growth that's on the cards."
She said it was crucial that planning for infrastructure such as roads and schools did not fall behind the actual increase in population.
"The Census figures confirm we are on a higher growth trajectory than what was projected in the NSW government figures.
"Unless there's the infrastructure, the planning and the investment to accompany that growth, we will undermine the very things that make us an attractive place to both live and do business."
We can see what happens when the planning drops behind the growth curve. You cannot fund your way out of that. Look at Sydney and the amount of money they're having to throw at metros.
- Alice Thompson
Ms Thompson has extensive experience in urban infrastructure planning at state and federal level and was most recently the manager of investment attraction at the Western City and Aerotropolis Authority.
"We should be planning for the future better than what Sydney did in high growth. We don't want to repeat those errors," she said.
"We can just look over our shoulder and see what happens when the planning drops behind the growth curve. You cannot fund your way out of that. Look at Sydney and the amount of money they're having to throw at metros."
A Regional Australia Insitute report published last week showed migration from capital cities to the Newcastle LGA grew by 13 per cent in the March quarter and seven per cent in a year.
Millennials aged 24 to 40 accounted for 66 per cent of the capital-city migrants to Newcastle, the highest percentage among the top five destinations in Australia.
The average age of capital-city movers to Newcastle was 30, the lowest among the top five destinations.
Ms Thompson said the government must plan for more schools to cater for the region's growth.
"When you see concentrations of populations, you've got contest for space and land and the prices go up.
"Schools emerged in Sydney as one of the biggest pain points for growth and one of the most challenging to overcome.
"We can also see that sitting in the Newcastle catchment as well.
"Families can't function without the schools, and schools in a nice triangle between home and work."
She said the committee was engaging closely with the government on its draft 2041 regional plan and regional transport plan.
"There is capacity in the existing infrastructure, but we can see pain points, symptoms of growth, in terms of housing affordability, housing accessibility, availablility of child care and schools in the right places.
"When you have growth and the benefits that come with that, it introduces diseconomies: congestion, crowding, loss of amenity, housing affordability. It's built in to that profile unless you manage it differently."