Industrial 'chaos' if net-zero plan holds

The Centre for Policy Development on Monday released detailed modelling of each local government area on the impact of locked-in and likely commitments for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The report estimates up to 300,000 jobs and over $150 billion in output would be in jeopardy if Australia faced the predicted 2050 drop in demand for fossil fuels today.

"In the short term, the reality is that demand for Australia's coal and gas exports is increasing, not falling," a spokeswoman for Energy Minister Angus Taylor told AAP.

Government modelling estimates a net gain of 62,000 new regional jobs in mining and heavy industry by 2050 under current plans for new technology.

But independent number-crunchers Toby Phillips and Warwick Smith say job losses will be painful, particularly on the coal-rich east coast, without more specific plans for the transition.

Seven local government areas out of 537 would have more than 20 per cent of their workforce affected, the report found.

"It will not crash the whole economy, but there are a handful of local government areas, half a dozen or so, which will be profoundly affected," Mr Smith said.

"This is where we must focus."

Without a more targeted plan, the most affected communities would be Isaac and Central Highlands in Queensland's Bowen Basin, and Singleton in the NSW Upper Hunter region in NSW, and parts of the Pilbara in Western Australia.

Amanda Cahill, chief executive of not-for-profit consultancy The Next Economy, says she has seen a shift in view in the regions as people realise the enormity of what's happening

"Now they're saying we have to get our heads around this and what this means," she told AAP.

"What we've been hearing on the ground from industry is that they've done as much as they can do.

"Until government gets their act together and starts to coordinate what's happening, there's actually concern that it's going to lead to more chaos."

Isaac is the nation's most exposed community with the greatest proportion of workers in jobs that are dependent on world demand for coal.

About two-thirds of the Bowen Basin's coal is coking coal, which will make the demand decline less abrupt than it will be in the Hunter Valley, but that does little for the longer-term outcomes.

The port of Newcastle services more than 40 coal mines across the broader Hunter Region and is the world's largest coal export port with over 150 million tonnes exported each year.

The federal government says plans to invest $21 billion in low emissions technologies by 2030 will unlock at least $80 billion of public and private investment over the decade.

Critics say money is moving, but without a coordinated strategy or plan it could roll over communities and not leave long-term benefits that can be shared.

There needs to be a national transition authority with regional hubs, a national fund, and a national plan with targets for 2030, Ms Cahill said.

Under all scenarios modelled in the report, demand for coal will plunge.

Demand for gas fares differently under the three scenarios, continuing to rise over the next decade if used as a "transition fuel".

Under scenarios of faster decarbonisation by our trading partners, Western Australia's Pilbara region is also affected because of its gas exports.

Based on more certainty - at least globally - on the agreed pace of cutting emissions, the report recommends a plan for new jobs to replace those lost in fossil fuel industries, finding "enormous opportunities" for regional Australia.

Hydrogen and ammonia will need port infrastructure, water, energy and a workforce.

Green steel and aluminium are other industrial opportunities.

Manufacturing renewable energy equipment, mining and processing more battery minerals are also key, along with a services industry to support new energy services.

Smaller rural areas may not benefit from industrial change, but are looking at adapting agriculture and using cheaper renewable energy to boost local food processing.

Australian Associated Press