The Labor bedwetting narrative is very premature

Steel is interesting because he is a former chair of the Republican National Committee who is now disillusioned with the Republicans in the age of Trump and has become a respected political commentator, particularly on MSNBC.

I'm quite sure he would say there is too much "bedwetting" and "hand-wringing" among Labor supporters and media commentators.

There is a serious disconnect between the objective polling data and the commentary from some Labor supporters. Some reporting also does not align with the objective reality.

This is not the product of media bias. It is rather a fascination with the heat of the moment rather than the light generated by a knowledge of political and electoral history.

The most recent polling averages from both the Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham put Labor distinctly ahead. The Poll Bludger has the ALP on 50.9 to the Coalition on 49.1. Bonham has the ALP at 51.0 while the Coalition is at 49.0.

Having examined polling data for the last 40 years of Australian federal elections I cannot find an example of a government that was leading 12 months out and yet went on to lose.

Of course, just because something has never happened doesn't mean it can't happen. But it does suggest it is not probable.

There are some unique variables about the current situation.

The size of the crossbench and the likelihood it will remain at least equally large is one such factor. The corresponding decline in primary votes for the major parties is another.

But every election has its unique characteristics. It might be 9/11 and Tampa in 2001, Mark Latham in 2004 or Scott Morrison in 2022, but each one is distinct.

And yet there is an overall pattern which needs to be understood: governments that are in front with 12 months to go are likely to win.

There are also some factors which tend to add volatility to the current political landscape.

The conflict in Gaza and associated protests in Australia may change some voting intentions. High interest rates and the possibility they will not fall before the election and slightly elevated inflation all suggest a potent political mix. There are also the ongoing immigration issues.

But these should already be factored into the current polling.

There have certainly been occasions when governing parties lost significant support in the last 12 months of a term. In the lead-up to the 2010 election internal Labor party strife caused a significant loss of votes, but the government was still returned.

There have also been big movements in favour of incumbents in the lead-up to the election.

In 2004 the Howard government looked extremely vulnerable 12 months out from the election, but in the end they won comfortably.

So, there is obviously potential for significant movement in the last 12 months of a term.

History suggests it is unlikely to be sufficient to lead to the defeat of a government with a lead in the polls such as that currently enjoyed by the Albanese government.

In fact, the average movement of both the primary vote and two-party preferred vote over the 12 months leading to a federal election has been approximately one point towards the government, averaged over the last 10 federal elections.

However, this disguises big swings in both directions over the years. For example, in 2001 the Liberal government primary vote increased by 7.1 per cent over the 12-month period leading up to the election, while the Labor government primary vote in 2010 fell by 8 per cent over the same period.

There is certainly no room for complacency within the ALP. Labor has a proven capacity to seize defeat from the jaws of victory. Likewise, there is no reason for the Coalition to despair.

However, at the moment the interesting thing about the current polling is its apparent stability. After making allowances for the inevitable statistical variation driven by sampling the recent polls have been quite stable, revolving around a two point Labor lead in two party preferred vote.

Nothing is certain in life or politics.

However, history suggests the prospects for a Labor victory next year are stronger than many commentators and worried supporters are currently suggesting.